The Unclassy Valley

What makes a city cool?  Why is one town better to visit or live in than another?  Is there some cleverly named and diagramed, but scientifically suspect rule to figuring it out?  All important questions that I will undisputedly answer here.

A little over 3 years ago my then girlfriend now wife, Lia, moved from Prosser, WA (pop. 4,800) to Yakima, WA (pop. 71k).  Prosser, while far from the town of my dreams, had a certain charm that made it visiting a fun little diversion.  There was a family mexican restaurant with homemade corn tortillas and a cute wine bar.  The locals drank beer and sang Karaoke at a bar called Keno's and there was a huge hot air balloon rally each September.  Even Lia's apartment was cute in a rural way, it was on old house turned into a 4-unit apartment building on a large lot in what Lia referred to as the "financial district" - both of the town's banks were across the street.

Lia moved because the newspaper she worked for had an opening in the main office.  On paper this seemed like a great deal: it was a more important beat for Lia, she would have a more experienced set of reporters and editors to learn from, and it cut the almost weekly commute one of us would make from 2:45 down to 2:00.  In reality though, Yakima was a disaster.  Lia's apartment was in a soulless building with a creepy laundry room overseen by a creepier manager.  Strangely there were fewer options for decent food and the bars could most politely be described as places for young Todd's with no sleeves to meet young Sarah's with no education - there was even one bar that was housed in a double-wide.  The town even seemed to hated itself: Lia was constantly being asked why she moved there if she went to Stanford, a question she began to ask herself more and more often.

Why did a town with close to 20x the population have half the character?

It seems like there are many factors that drive the quality of life in a given town. There is the location, people, weather, museums, restaurants, entertainment, transportation, etc.  But how does a city get great attractions?  Why does Seattle have more great restaurants than say, Federal Way?  It would naively seem that more people = more stuff = better, but Yakima disproves this.

I would propose that the answer can be found in a hypothesis that has had only the smallest amount of anecdotal data, and no serious research.  Behold, The Unclassy Valley!

Unclassy Valley

The basic theory is that small towns (pop. 0 - 15,000) have a lot of character because:
  • Everyone knows each other, so there are stronger relationships and a close community.
  • The town is too small to attract many large, homogenizing chains like Olive Garden's and Wal-Mart.
  • Rent is low enough to allow small, family run restaurants and shops. 
Large towns (pop. 250k+) are great because:
  • People have some of the freedom that comes with anonymity, but there is enough population to allow many close-knit sub-communities to develop.
  • There are enough people that niche restaurants, shops, and museums can attract a critical mass of audience.
  • Money has been invested in infrastructure to make services (hospitals, transportation, etc.) available. 
Towns above 15k people, but below 250k, are stuck in a kind of "no man's land" of lameness.  These towns:
  • Are too small for strong sub-communities, but too large for a single community. 
  • Have enough population to have attracted low-value chain restaurants that have driven out mom and pop places that add character.
  • Don't have enough population to invest in unique infrastructure, museums, or parks.

This theory gained international acceptance when Lia and I took our honeymoon in Italy.  We loved Tremezzo (pop. 1,300) and Florence (pop. 366k), but were unimpressed by either Como (pop. 88k) or Rapallo (pop. 33k)

In my experience, the nadir of this chart is at 71,845.

You're Flying Me Crazy

US Air just announced that they are dropping inflight entertainment from all domestic flights.  According to the article inflight entertainment systems are simply too heavy and removing them will save the company $10MM a year in fuel costs.


Airlines executives want us to believe that fuel costs and labor unions are the reasons why their companies are failing and that it has nothing to do with gross mismanagement or making consumer unfriendly choices.  Like taking out inflight entertainment.

I know absolutely nothing about running an airline or US Air's operations.  But I do have Wikipedia and a calculator.

According to the US Air Wikipedia entry the airline has 3,500 daily flights.  The also have their fleet size:
  • 196 - A319/320/321s
  • 9 - A330s
  • 81 - 737s
  • 42 - 757s
  • 10 - 767s  
  • 16 - Embraer 190s  
Only 3% of their fleet are wide-body aircraft (A330s and 767s).  According to the article they're leaving entertainment on the wide-bodies.  Let's assume that their flights are proportional to fleet size (this likely overestimates the number of wide-body flights because they are longer flights).  This means US Air will have 3,395 flights a day or 1,239,175 a year that are losing inflight entertainment.  This equates to a saving of $8.07 per flight.

Using the airplane configuration information, the average narrow body plane has 132 coach seats on it.  This means that US Air is saving $0.06 per passenger by taking out inflight entertainment.  Remember: this isn't US Air charging for the service, they are flat removing the equipment.

This of course assumes that no revenue will be lost from passengers choosing a different airline and that there will be no cost associated with removing the equipment.

As I said, above, I don't know much about running an airline, but I struggle to see how this can be anything but shortsighted anti-customer decisions caused by gross incompetence in management. 

Killing SMS

Josh Kopelman from First Round Capital likes to talk about shrinking markets.  Michael Dell likes to attack competitors margins.  Well, Hello SMS!  There doesn't seem to be a whale more bloated than SMS in play right now.

Of course historically the wireless companies have kept a very tight leash on software development making disruptive software very hard to build.  But then someone let Steve Jobs guard the hen house and it is now off to the races.

How it would work
When the iPhone first launched it was clear it would be disruptive because it moved so much control out of the hands of the carrier.  The second piece came when Apple released the SDK and democratized the disruption.  The third, and final piece arrives in September with the release of the Apple Push Notification Service (APNS).  With this developers can push notifications and badges down to the iPhone instantly.  A little messaging service in the backend and you have replicated the functionality, if not ubiquity of SMS.

Growing your network
Alas, this only works for people who have installed your application and day 0 that is only you.  In the business, we call this the "cold start" problem and it kills 99% of social applications before they launch.  How do you make your app useful to the first person to install it?  How do you grow your network?

The carriers have really helped us out here because they have given the world APIs to send text messages.  So just make your Web 2.0 Name Compliant iPhone app (Textr?) communicate only with your Textr service.  It does a quick little look-up to see if phone number 206-555-1234 is a Textr user.  If it is, deliver the message via APNS, if not send an SMS.  Every installed user no longer sends text messages and you've started to shrink the market.  The poor fool who is getting the text message probably isn't using your service and is therefore paying exorbitant fees for that text.  Help that guy out by appending a nice little message on how to save money to the text:

Hey Steve, let's meet at McLeod later for a drink.

Text for free with Textr!

And your network starts to grow with no cold start costs for the first few users.  Your evangelize the network to the people that they'd use it with the most.

Embrace and Extend
Now that you've made it cheaper than SMS for your users, make it better.  Keep a record of all messages on the server that can be, archived, indexed, and searched.  Send digests of entire conversations via e-mail or RSS.  Open up APIs to make it really easy to send yourself or others Textr messages, link it with Jabber, AIM, whatever.  Find out what people wish could be done with instant communication and do it.

Go after the big boys
Once you have a little bit of traction, go after big companies to try to reduce their costs.  Companies like Twitter, Facebook, Dodgeball, etc. must pay a fortune in SMS fees.  I'd bet they'd love to decrease those.  Sign them up and charge them wholesale for SMS gateway work and next to nothing for people who use your application.  The largest cost to them is your little ad on a small percentage of their texts.  This really benefits them because everyone who installs the app saves them money.  The market continues to get smaller.

Move beyond the iPhone
So far so good on the iPhone users, but as my friend Darren asked "does this mean I can't be friends with people without iPhones?" Of course not, whether or not your friend has the application installed is almost transparent to a user.  But we can built Textr for other platforms too!  RIM, Windows Mobile, and Android all allow applications to run in the background, so we can build our software for them.  Dollars to doughnuts says that at least RIM and Android are working on some APNS analog which will make this even easier.  People without phones based on one of these platforms can't play, but in the long run I believe that will become a very small percentage of the population as these phones become cheaper.

Increase shareholder value
All this is well and good, but how do we make money from this?  Charge the biggest users.  For the casual user of your service <5,000 messages per month, charge them nothing.  For the larger (read: institutional) users charge them a fee that is half the price of SMS.  We know that SMS is highway robbery, so making it much cheaper and still profiting should be easy enough to do.  Or once you get market penetration start charging some nominal fee, like $1, for the application.  Assume you net $0.70 (this is the margin on the iPhone App Store) and with a little work you're collecting $0.70 / phone sold worldwide.  That's not shabby.  Did I mention you get a free social network from your app as part of the deal?

Well this has been fun, I hope you enjoyed it as well.  If you decide to launch a company based on this idea please just drop me a line to say thanks.  Or 2% of the company.  That's cool too.

I wonder if anyone else has thought about this already?

Re: Important News Regarding Netflix Profiles

From: Russell Dicker

To: Reed Hastings, CEO Netflix


Dear Mr. Hastings:
I have been a proud Netflix customer since January 2000, so I am well aware of your track record of being a customer centric company.  This is exactly why I was both surprised and dismayed to receive the e-mail informing me of your plans to deprecate the multiple profiles feature.

At its launch, Profiles was immediately one of may favorite features and I clearly recall the "Oh my God, this is awesome" moment when I learned about it.  My discovery of the feature coincided with my girlfriend moving in with me.  The process of becoming acclimated to living together was eased by her ability to watch a seemingly endless stream of "Desperate Housewives" episodes in quick succession while I took my time with "A History of Violence" and "Ong-Bak: The Thai Warrior".  We still live together and it would be only a small exaggeration to say that this feature played a small role in the fact that we will be getting married one month from today.

Perhaps you read this and think it is time that I be prepared to share everything, including my movie queue, with the future Mrs. Dicker.  You may have a point; she is the love of my life and sharing is what marriage is about.  But isn't it enough that I've offered to teach her stick shift so she can drive my BMW?  I'm taking dance lessons for the wedding.  Can't you let me hang on to this one little bit of my bachelorhood?  I love her more than words, but despite being from Texas, she just isn't a "No Country for Old Men" kind of gal.

I am not ignorant of your protestations that you must balance the needs of customers with the rigors of development.  I am a senior manager at a small e-commerce concern named after a large river.  In this position I am confronted with these kinds of challenges almost daily.  I only bring this to your attention so that you understand the weight of experience behind my advice:

You can do better.  Whatever the customer experience or technical challenges may be I am confident that you and your team can overcome them. I'd volunteer my own services, but I'm afraid it would conflict with my NCA.

Best of luck.

Yours,

(Signed)
Russell Dicker

CC:http://www.rdicker.com/home/2008/06/re-important-news-regarding-netflix-profiles.html

Dancing Gopher

This is a Customer Video Review that I filmed back in September. I am using the Your Videos Widget to embed it into my blog. So now you can watch the video here, and if you buy anything through it I'll even make a few bucks:

2007 by the numbers

Here is how I spent my 2007, strictly by the numbers:


  • Number of books I read before getting my Kindle: 1

  • Number of books I read after getting my Kindle: 4

  • Kindle launch date: October 15

  • Weddings attended: 3

  • Weddings missed: 3

  • Sister-in laws acquired: 1

  • Number of times I got engaged: 1

  • Bachelor Parties Attended: 1

  • Thanksgivings I attended: 2

  • Miles flown: 64,515

  • Percentage of miles flown with Lia: 20.6%

  • Percentage of miles flown on United metal: 88.6%

  • Percentage of miles flown for business: 77.3%

  • Percentage of miles by class of service:

    • First: 12.2%

    • Business: 34.8%

    • Economy: 53%


  • Countries (other than the US) Visited, Ordered by Frequency:

    • Germany - 2

    • Romania - 2

    • Austria - 1

    • Canada - 1

    • England - 1

    • Mexico - 1

    • Scotland - 1



  • Countries Visited Where I didn't leave the airport, Ordered by Frequency:

    • Germany - 2

    • Austria - 1

    • England - 1



  • Countries Stamps In My Passport, Ordered by Frequency:

    • Romania - 4

    • United States - 2

    • Austria - 1

    • Germany - 1

    • United Kingdom - 1



  • States (other than Washington) Visited, Ordered by Frequency:

    • California - 7

    • Virginia - 6

    • Illinois - 4

    • Colorado - 4

    • Indiana - 1

    • Maryland - 1

    • Massachusetts - 1

    • Missouri - 1

    • Oregon - 1

    • Pennsylvania - 1

    • Texas - 1



  • States (other than Washington) Visited Excluding Layovers, Ordered by Frequency:

    • California - 4

    • Virginia - 2

    • Indiana - 1

    • Maryland - 1

    • Massachusetts - 1

    • Oregon - 1

    • Pennsylvania - 1

    • Texas - 1



  • Length of boat sailed around the San Juan islands with Lia and her parents: 42'

  • Number of blog posts (including this one): 10

  • Number of Twitter posts: 195

  • Number of New Years Resolutions: 1

  • Percentage of light-bulbs replaced with LEDs: 26.7%

  • Percentage of New Years Resolutions completed: 0%

  • Bales of hay buried: 1

  • Tomatoes grown: Hundreds

  • Loaves of Bread baked: 5

  • Fantasy Football records:

    • FFL: 7-9

    • Westside League: 7-8



  • Surprise Endings to Lost Season Finales Predicted: 1

  • Private jets bought: 0

  • Number of unique songs listened to according to iTunes: 1,163

  • Bosses: 2

  • Hours Lia and I waited in line to get an iPhone: 8

  • Hours we probably needed to wait in line: 0

  • Number of Amazon.com orders: 94

  • Years old I turned: 32


Happy New Year to Everyone

Little Pearls

Many of my loyal readers know that I am a mentor for a local program called Community for Youth. I am frequently asked what I do as a mentor. As the site says I help my student learn how to identify and achieve their goals and build healthy relationships. I also help them by passing on a few old adages, little pearls of wisdom if you will, that I have learned over the years.

Earlier today I was thinking, hey, why just help one high school student? I could help many more. So I decided to publish my top 10 nuggets of insight. I think their meaning speaks for itself.

  1. You can’t get blood from a chicken before it’s hatched
  2. If it isn’t broken, put all your eggs in one basket
  3. When the going gets tough, ignorance is bliss
  4. The proof is in the eye of the beholder
  5. Give an inch, get a worm
  6. Nothing ventured is a penny saved
  7. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make lemonade
  8. The apple doesn’t fall far from the polished turd
  9. Smooth as a baby’s nose to the grindstone
  10. If you can’t beat ‘em, make ‘em drink

I'm doing my part to help the next generation and I hope that you do yours.

100 Pictures

Back in July I introdroduced the 100 Picture Project. The idea being to document the experience of my travels by taking a picture of whatever I am looking at every 15 minutes. My longest and most demanding trip is flying home from Iaşi, Romania. This is a 25 hour trip, so taking a picture every 15 minutes would give me exactly 100 pictures.

Yesterday was my trip home. A delay leaving D.C. (they misloaded the cargo and we needed to go back to the gate) stretched the trip out, so I hit the 25 hour/100 picture estimate exactly on the nose and the results are now up at Flickr. I recommend viewing it as a slideshow.

100pp: August 18, 2007 - 11:45 am GMT

How did it turn out? There are some interesting moments and a few beautiful ones, but honestly I think most of the shots are really stunningly boring. In other words, just like the trip. If you've ever done it, you know that traveling 25 hours straight is boring for long stretches at a time. On shorter trips I stare out the window more, but on the long ones, I read and watch videos. As a consequence a lot of the shots are of the American version of The Office, I watched the whole second season. I also wasn't able to stay awake for the whole time, so there are 11 placeholder slides during my three hour nap. All this adds to the boredom while watching the slides, but also makes the show more in line with the actual experience. For that, I am very pleased with the results.

Notes from the Road

A few notes/observations from my current travels:

  • Business class on IAD to FRA had more trophy wives per square foot than the changing rooms of Louis Vitton on Rodeo drive. Seriously. I'm surprised some of the jewlery didn't count towards the carry-on luggage quota.
  • Frankfurt Airport has the nicest and most competent security of any airport I've been to. They consistantly notice things in my luggage that they want to take a closer look at (this time it was my electric toothbrush), but are always very polite and efficient about it.
  • On my Lufthansa flight to Vienna some of the passengers were being persnickity about their seating and refused to sit down. How did they deal with it? The plane just started to taxi. The simply didn't care. The flight attendant seemed to tell them, "These are your seats, you can take them or not, but we've closed the door and are leaving." They sat down in a hurry.
  • Austrian, like many European airlines, names all their planes. Their Lauda 737-800 fleet are all named after famous musicians such as Miles Davis, Kurt Cobain, Frank Zappa, and George Harrison. An impressive and influential set there. And while he may not be consisdered as important to music as a Freddie Mercury, because they are Austrian, Falco gets a plane as well. Rock me Amadaus!
  • I've always seen the stray dogs when I visit Iasi, but this time I've also seen wild horses.

Funny things you WON'T be reading in Seattle Metropolitan

So Lia was writing an article about some Allen Institute for Brian Scienece mapping project tonight and asked me to help with a lede for her story.  Apparently she thinks I'm witty or something.  Anyway, here are the funny ledes of mine she rejected tonight:

  • Paul Allen aims to be the Magellan of the Cerebellum

  • Forget piece of mind, Paul Allen wants to map the whole thing
  • and my personal favorite...

  • Much to the delight of Zombie connoisseurs everywhere, the Allen Brain Institute is planning to map more of the delicious, delicious brain

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